The Pause that Refreshes
August 13, 2023

Coca Cola’s old slogan — “the pause that refreshes” — reminds us of the US stock market in August.

Coca Cola’s old slogan — “the pause that refreshes” — reminds us of the US stock market in August.

The big news last week was that Fitch downgraded the US Treasury’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA. After all, we have been running continuous budget deficits since the Clinton administration in 2001!

Second quarter earnings season is in full swing posting solid +3% year-over-year growth and propelling the major US stock market indices to another positive week and a new 52-week high for the S&P 500. Approximately 80% of reported earnings have been better than expected.

The Dow Jones is on a hot streak with ten straight positive trading days while the other two major US stock market indices came in mixed for the week (i.e., DJIA: +2.28%, S&P 500: +0.69%, Nasdaq: -0.57%). Although you shouldn’t wish your life away, many investors wouldn’t mind closing the book on 2023 right now with year-to-date returns of +6.28%, +18.15% and +34.07%, respectively!

All three major US stock market indices produced nice gains for the week. Which factors are driving this market upward? Inflation and unemployment are two of them.

The five-day workweek reverted to four days with the July 4th holiday. The US stock market indices certainly didn’t launch any fireworks with all three posting losses.

After five straight weeks of gains for the S&P 500 and eight for the Nasdaq, all three major US stock market indices lost ground this past week. Those seven high-flying tech stocks—AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, and META—were the main culprits.

The Federal Reserve’s rising interest rate policy may have paused this week, but stock market momentum continued its upward ascent! All three major US stock market indices posted gains for the week with the S&P 500 having its 5th consecutive weekly gain.

All three major US stock market indices posted gains by a whisker last week. The US stock market seems sanguine now that the debt ceiling issue has been resolved. What should we worry about next?

As is the case in much of life, there is good news, and there is bad news. On the positive front, the debt ceiling deal, employment data, and inflation data supported the markets this week. But we’re still far from the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which may lead to some policy action. The market impact is to be determined.
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