From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, SUSAN B. ANTHONY, ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL WOMEN IN AMERICAN HISTORY!
The stock market served up quite the emotional rollercoaster this week, posting its worst performance year-to-date: (DJIA: -1.23%, S&P 500: -1.39%, Nasdaq: -2.10%). Initial turbulence was sparked by renewed fears of a trade war, though markets partially recovered after the tariff stance softened midweek. Technology stocks bore the brunt of the decline as investors apparently had second thoughts about whether every company needs to spend billions on artificial intelligence. The week’s volatility was a stark reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift when investors reassess their assumptions.
Where things get interesting is what the earnings data actually suggests. According to Argus Research, preliminary fourth-quarter results show a blended growth rate of roughly 13% (representing ~60% of companies reporting as of early February). Management teams have successfully navigated tariff headwinds while incorporating artificial intelligence efficiencies into their business models. Argus has raised its 2026 earnings estimate to $315 per share, implying 15.6% growth year-over-year, with Information Technology, Industrials, and Financial Services leading the advance. When earnings prove this resilient amid competing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, valuations can look more defensible despite near-term volatility.
The conversation around portfolio construction extends beyond equities. VanEck’s research on gold provides useful context for understanding how market participants are reassessing diversification in a world where traditional assumptions may not hold. Gold recently reached all-time record levels above $5,000 an ounce, driven by forces including debt levels, geopolitical fragmentation, and currency considerations. Notably, despite gold’s strong performance, most investors remain materially under-allocated to alternative stores of value. The takeaway isn’t prescriptive, but rather descriptive. The longer-term risks appear to be structural (i.e., sustained challenges embedded in the economic and geopolitical landscape) rather than temporary. This distinction matters for portfolio construction because structural risks may warrant a broader toolkit to protect across different economic environments. Hence the interest in gold.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Argus:
Van Eck:
Schwab:
Capital Group:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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