From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
THERE ARE NO STUPID QUESTIONS. HOW DOES THAT WORK ON NATIONAL “ASK A STUPID QUESTION” DAY?
The three major U.S. stock market indices delivered a negative week (i.e., DJIA: -0.15%, S&P 500: -0.31%, Nasdaq: -0.65%), marking a reversal from recent momentum that highlights September’s persistent ability to humble investors. Argus Research notes that September has earned the distinction of being the market’s worst month since 1980, averaging a decline of 1.01% with only a 49% “win” rate. What makes this week’s decline particularly notable is the confluence of factors: the administration’s proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee comes at a time when technology companies are already facing margin pressure and heightened scrutiny over AI investment returns. The timing suggests markets may be more vulnerable to policy disruption than the year-to-date gains might indicate, especially given that much of 2025’s performance has been concentrated in a narrow group of mega-cap stocks that rely heavily on skilled immigration for talent acquisition.
JP Morgan’s analysis of government shutdown risks reveals a more complex dynamic than simple historical precedent suggests. While the firm notes that “a shutdown could potentially reduce confidence and cause global investors to continue reallocating away from the U.S.,” the current environment differs meaningfully from past episodes. Unlike previous shutdowns that occurred during periods of economic uncertainty or market stress, this potential disruption comes amid historically low unemployment and robust corporate earnings growth. This creates an unusual tension where fundamental economic strength could provide a buffer against political volatility. The irony is that the very companies driving market performance—those with the highest valuations and greatest dependence on global talent—are precisely the ones most vulnerable to the policy uncertainties that threaten to derail the favorable earnings environment that has justified their premium multiples.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Argus:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Capital Group:
Northern Trust:
Zacks:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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