From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
HAPPY BIRTHDAY WEEK, DAD!
The three major U.S. stock market indices rebounded this week with a collective sigh of relief (i.e., DJIA: +3.00%, S&P 500: +2.92%, Nasdaq: +3.42%), though all remain firmly in negative territory for the year. The recovery arrived after what Argus Research describes as an unusually volatile April, where the S&P 500 plunged to a concerning 15.3% year-to-date loss at its worst. The culprit? Tariff concerns. Market analysts note that shifting rhetoric around trade policy has been driving much of the market’s movements. The latest rally may be attributed to the administration’s recently softened tone. This welcome reprieve was further bolstered when tensions between the administration and Federal Reserve leadership appeared to ease, calming Treasury markets and stabilizing the dollar.
The past 100 days offer a sobering historical context for investors. CFRA’s research observes that, in their first 100 days, the current administration’s second term has produced the second-worst S&P 500 results (down 7.9%) since 1945. Yet there might be a silver lining in this historical cloud. Since World War II, the market has risen an average of 3.2% during the next 100 days following inauguration. History also reveals that below-average returns in the first 100 days don’t necessarily doom the full year. It will be interesting to see which sectors prevail. Leadership continues its dramatic flip-flop — April’s winners included previously beaten-down growth sectors like Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary. It seems market leadership, like springtime weather, can change direction with remarkable speed.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Argus:
CFRA:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Schwab:
Invesco:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
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