From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
WE HOPE OUR WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS & COMMENTARY BRINGS JOY TO YOU ON NATIONAL SPREAD JOY DAY!
The three major U.S. stock market indices all finished higher this week (DJIA: +0.93%, S&P 500: +1.15%, Nasdaq: +0.64%), though the headlines belonged to oil and interest rates. Oil prices swung with each development in the Middle East, and Brent crude oil briefly topped $105 per barrel on Thursday amid reports of further tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed’s September meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers anticipated another rate increase by year-end, without saying when. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds climbed to their highest levels since 2002 before retreating after stronger-than-expected auctions. Alas, “off the highs” is not the same as “low.”
Argus Research’s monthly survey follows those higher rates home. Yes, the Fed’s September rate hike dominated the news, but Argus argues that the 10-year Treasury yield, which helps set mortgage rates, has a bigger and more direct effect on the economy. At a moment when wage growth has slipped behind inflation, higher interest rates further pressure an already stalled housing market and big-ticket purchases such as vehicles and appliances. Argus’s piece is not all gloom though. The S&P 500 was up double digits this year through September. Since 1980, years with a start this strong have tended to finish well ahead of the average annual performance. Notably, the fourth quarter has also historically been the market’s best. History may be on the stock market’s side, but history has never had to finance a car.
Where Argus zooms in on the household, J.P. Morgan’s fourth-quarter Economic and Market Update steps back to the broader economy. Their read is that things are slowing without stalling. They expect growth to cool through year-end while staying positive. They call the job market “tight” but not “strong.” And, in their view, inflation’s return to the Fed’s 2% target has been delayed, not derailed. The Fed gets the same careful treatment. Markets entered 2026 expecting two rate cuts and got a hike instead, a move the Fed frames as easing off the gas rather than stepping on the brake. J.P. Morgan wonders whether the economy will see it that way. The households from Argus’s piece may have an answer.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Argus:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Schwab:
Invesco:
First Trust:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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