From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
GIVEN THIS WEEKEND’S GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, “MARCH MADNESS” TAKES ON NEW MEANING. WE PRAY FOR THOSE SERVING OUR COUNTRY AND WISH THEM SAFE RETURN HOME.
Markets stumbled this week, with losses across all major indices (DJIA: -1.31%, S&P 500: -0.44%, Nasdaq: -0.95%), closing out the worst month in recent memory for growth stocks (Nasdaq -3.38% in February). Friday’s selloff was triggered by a Producer Price Index reading that came in significantly hotter than expected, raising concerns that inflation isn’t fully solved. Adding to investor anxiety, private credit markets showed signs of stress when Blue Owl Capital permanently restricted withdrawals from one of its retail-focused debt funds, prompting questions about broader weakness in private lending markets. Over the weekend—after markets closed—the U.S. and Israel launched major military strikes against Iran, a consequential escalation that is now front of mind for investors and will likely drive trading dynamics on Monday. The articles selected below pre-date these strikes but remain important context for understanding the mosaic of pressures that investors were already facing before this significant geopolitical event.
Underneath the turmoil, there exists a peculiar economic paradox that Argus Research describes aptly as the “boomcession.” By traditional metrics, the economy is performing reasonably well: jobs growth turned positive in January, industrial production accelerated, and inflation has retreated to manageable levels. Yet consumer sentiment paints a starkly different picture. According to Argus, both the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey deteriorated sharply, driven by worsening affordability concerns and anxieties about job availability. The housing market, operating at roughly two-thirds of historical peak levels, exemplifies this disconnect. What appears to be improving economic fundamentals masks a population increasingly worried about making ends meet, unable to access homeownership or affordability for everyday goods.
The tariff landscape, meanwhile, remains in flux following the Supreme Court’s rejection of the sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency authority. According to Capital Group, while that legal setback was undoubtedly a blow to the White House’s broader trade agenda, the administration retains several more durable statutory pathways to reconstruct much of the tariff framework. A 15% blanket global tariff is being imposed temporarily under Section 122 of the Trade Act, while the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is pursuing longer-term investigations under Section 301 that could target specific countries for alleged unfair trade practices. These alternative authorities carry fewer legal vulnerabilities than the emergency powers the court struck down. What has returned, however, is tariff uncertainty. The original framework appeared settled, but the administration’s pivot to these alternative mechanisms means businesses and markets face another extended period of not knowing exactly which products will face duties and at what rates. That uncertainty–layered atop significantly elevated geopolitical risk, private credit stress, and persistent inflation–leaves financial markets with multiple headwinds as March begins.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Argus:
Capital Group:
Schwab:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Northern Trust:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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