From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
ON THIS NATIONAL PEARL HARBOR DAY OF REMEMBRANCE WE WISH TO HONOR THE FALLEN SOLDIERS AND THE SURVIVORS. WE ARE GRATEFUL FOR THEIR SERVICE AND SACRIFICE.
After November’s whipsaw—a 4.7% dive followed by a rally on shifting Fed expectations—markets found steadier footing this week (DJIA: +0.50%, S&P 500: +0.31%, Nasdaq: +0.90%). The gains, while modest, may signal a shift from the chaotic momentum of the past month toward something resembling stability. Capital Group’s latest outlook captures the broader mood: if 2025 was the year of tariff-induced uncertainty, then 2026 may be the year things come back into focus. The firm’s Brady Enright believes the economic backdrop could improve considerably, with global trade disputes subsiding, government stimulus kicking in, and interest rates trending lower. That’s not a dramatic turnaround—it’s a normalization. But normalization, after months of whiplash, feels restorative. The real question is whether this emerging calm can hold as valuations remain elevated across global markets and the Fed hints that a December rate cut isn’t guaranteed. We will learn more about the latter after the Fed Open Market Committee meeting culminating this Wednesday, December 10th.
What happens to the AI foundation itself is especially important. Argus nailed the November narrative. The three-year rally has been built on AI, and that foundation exhibited cracks when Nvidia fell despite beating earnings expectations by billions. But here’s the silver lining embedded in the recent volatility: the AI trade didn’t implode; it rotated. Investors cashed out of the mega-cap names and redeployed winnings into other sectors, indicating that AI enthusiasm may be maturing rather than dying. Argus expects the trade to remain bumpy going forward, though they draw an important parallel to past transformational technology waves like cloud, internet, and semiconductors. All were messy, volatile, and ultimately long and fruitful. The AI foundation may have shown cracks this month, but the building itself appears to still be standing.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Capital Group:
Argus:
Schwab:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Fidelity:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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