From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
WHETHER YOU’RE A CHARLES, CHARLIE, CHUCK, CHAS, OR CHIP, WE’RE CELEBRATING YOU ON NATIONAL CHARLES DAY!
The three major U.S. stock market indices were mixed this past week (DJIA: +0.34%, S&P 500: +0.08%, Nasdaq: -0.45%). BlackRock’s November Student of the Market analysis suggests that investors shouldn’t let short-term volatility obscure longer-term data patterns. U.S. stocks just completed their best May-to-October stretch since 1950. According to BlackRock, historically this strength tends to carry through the traditionally robust November-to-April period—what market watchers playfully call “Turkey to Tax” season. The current bull market has now celebrated its third birthday with 100% returns, though it still trails the average 74-month, 343% rally that typically characterizes bull cycles. Nonetheless, pundits can’t help but compare today to the early 2000s tech bubble. Stock prices during the tech bubble soared 439% while earnings grew just 80%. In contrast, today’s AI-driven rally shows earnings growth of 73% keeping pace with 94% price appreciation. Also worth noting, periods when the Fed cuts rates without triggering recession have historically delivered 37% average gains for tech stocks over the following year. Are we repeating history or navigating a different era? Only time will tell.
What’s fueling optimism beyond the charts and seasonal patterns? Per Capital Group, it’s a powerful multi-year trend that could reshape the American economy. The “Made in America” narrative is transitioning from campaign slogan to corporate reality, with major companies pouring hundreds of billions into domestic production. Recent announcements read like an industrial who’s-who: Apple committing $600 billion over four years to U.S. manufacturing and workforce training; NVIDIA building supercomputer plants in Texas; and Taiwan Semiconductor establishing five new chip facilities in Arizona. This isn’t your grandparents’ manufacturing renaissance—it’s a high-tech, AI-powered reimagining of American production capabilities that’s attracting investment across sectors.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
BlackRock:
Capital Group:
Schwab:
Goldman Sachs:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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