From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
¡Feliz Día de los Muertos!
“TO LIVE IN HEARTS WE LEAVE BEHIND IS NOT TO DIE,”
— Thomas Campbell, Hallowed Ground
The three major U.S. stock market indices posted solid gains for the week (DJIA: +0.75%, S&P 500: +0.71%, Nasdaq: +2.24%), as investors digested a curious new phrase from the economic lexicon: inflation that’s “good enough.” According to Argus Research’s latest analysis, the Federal Reserve has essentially declared inflation acceptable enough to resume rate cuts, even if it hasn’t hit the Fed’s 2% target with mathematical precision. The all-items Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September on a month-over-month basis, with core CPI climbing 0.2% after a 0.3% increase in August. What’s particularly interesting about this “good enough” standard is how it reflects the Fed’s evolving pragmatism—like a perfectionist finally accepting that sometimes “done” is better than “perfect.” While gasoline prices grabbed headlines as the biggest contributor to September’s inflation figures, the softening in away-from-home food prices offers welcome relief for restaurant-goers who’ve been staggered by menu price increases over the past few years. The real story here isn’t just about percentage points; it’s about the Fed reading the economic tea leaves and deciding that waiting for inflation perfection could mean missing the window to support economic momentum.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan’s research team is keeping a close eye on December, noting that investors are now pricing in approximately a 70% chance of another rate cut at the Fed’s final meeting of 2025. This probability reflects the market’s interpretation of recent economic signals—solid activity, a steady labor market, and inflation that continues its gradual descent. Think of it like a thermostat that’s been cranked up too high: the Fed is carefully dialing it back down, but not so quickly that the whole system gets shocked by the sudden temperature change. With the Federal Funds rate currently sitting 100 basis points below its cycle peak, monetary policy has shifted from restrictive to something closer to neutral territory. The path forward remains uncertain, particularly with policy fog swirling around Washington and the specter of potential tariffs that could complicate the inflation picture. But for now, markets seem content to bet that the Fed will lean toward supporting growth, especially if the data cooperates and doesn’t throw any unwelcome surprises into the mix.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Argus:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
BlackRock:
American Century:
Yardeni Research:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The information contained herein has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or economic sector, or implement any strategy discussed. Please consult with your financial advisor, accountant, and/or attorney before acting on this information. ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc. is a DBA of OneSeven, LLC (OneSeven). OneSeven is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment Products are Not FDIC Insured, Offer No Bank Guarantee, and May Lose Value.
OneSeven does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third parties.