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Fed’s Cautious Stance Tests Market Momentum

February 2, 2025

From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera

HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY! WE’RE ON “TEAM NO SHADOW.”

February is coming in like a lion – but will it go out like a bull or a bear?

The U.S. stock market wrapped up January this past week on a mixed note (i.e., DJIA: +0.27%, S&P 500: -1.00%, Nasdaq: -1.64%). Argus’s analysts paint an intriguing picture for 2025, highlighting how major themes like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and clean energy could shape markets ahead. While their analysis suggests S&P 500 earnings could grow by 12% this year after a 9% rise in 2024, they note that the start of 2025 may face headwinds as the Federal Reserve grapples with stubborn inflation and companies navigate an evolving policy landscape.

The Fed’s cautious stance was on full display this week, as detailed in J.P. Morgan’s latest analysis. The central bank kept interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in its first meeting of the year, putting the brakes on a three-meeting streak of rate cuts. While the Fed acknowledged improvements in the labor market’s stability, they’re taking what J.P. Morgan calls a “patient approach” given recent upticks in inflation. Think of it like a driver tapping the brakes on a winding road – you’re still moving forward, just more carefully than before. This measured pace suggests market volatility could stick around like winter weather, with Argus warning that any policy surprises could send ripples through financial markets.

Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.

Argus:

  • Investment Themes for 2025

J.P. Morgan Asset Management:

  • Why did the Federal Reserve hold rates steady in its first meeting of the year?

Zacks:

  • Broad-Based Sector Growth Expected for 2025

Nuveen:

  • Investing in a power-hungry economy

Northern Trust:

  • Trump Card

Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The information contained herein has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or economic sector, or implement any strategy discussed. Please consult with your financial advisor, accountant, and/or attorney before acting on this information. ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc. is a DBA of OneSeven, LLC (OneSeven). OneSeven is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).  Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment Products are Not FDIC Insured, Offer No Bank Guarantee, and May Lose Value.

OneSeven does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third parties.

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