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Policy Plot Twists Can’t Stop Market Party

January 26, 2025

From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera

STAY SAFE & HAVE FUN!

Baby, it’s cold outside, but Wall Street’s running hot!

The stock market kicked off 2025 with an impressive victory lap this week, as all three major U.S. market indices posted strong gains (i.e., DJIA: +2.95%, S&P 500: +2.76%, Nasdaq: +3.19%). This rally comes at an interesting time, with Hartford Funds pointing out that we’re entering a period of “policy roulette.” While businesses are doing well and the U.S. economy keeps chugging along, there are some new wrinkles to watch. Think of it like a Netflix series where the main plot (strong economy) keeps you hooked, but there are plenty of subplots (shifting policies and interest rate decisions) that could shake things up in future episodes.

Speaking of plot twists, J.P. Morgan’s latest analysis digs into what could be a spicy trade showdown brewing with our North American neighbors. Here’s the situation: the U.S. is considering slapping 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada starting February 1st. This is a big deal since these countries are basically our economic roommates – they supply more than half of our car parts and Canada alone sends us 60% of our oil. Both countries are trying to play nice, with Mexico putting up trade barriers against China and Canada spending big on border security. But if these tariffs do happen, J.P. Morgan’s number crunchers say it could knock the Mexican and Canadian economies down by 1.7% and 1.2% over five years, respectively. Still, most experts think this is more of a negotiating tactic than a permanent plan – like a game of economic chicken where nobody really wants to crash.

Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.

Hartford Funds:

  • Trump 2.0: Time to Curb Your Enthusiasm?

J.P. Morgan Asset Management:

  • How would tariffs impact Mexico and Canada?

VanEck:

  • VanEck Mid-January Bitcoin ChainCheck

Schwab:

  • Hard to Handle: A Look at Hard vs. Soft Data

Argus:

  • Fourth-Quarter 2024: Challenging End to a Positive Year

Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The information contained herein has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or economic sector, or implement any strategy discussed. Please consult with your financial advisor, accountant, and/or attorney before acting on this information. ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc. is a DBA of OneSeven, LLC (OneSeven). OneSeven is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).  Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment Products are Not FDIC Insured, Offer No Bank Guarantee, and May Lose Value.

OneSeven does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third parties.

Filed Under: Latest News

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Disclosures: OneSeven (“OneSeven”) is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Services are provided under the name ClientFirst Financial Strategies (“ClientFirst”), a DBA of OneSeven. Investment products are not FDIC insured, offer no bank guarantee, and may lose value.

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