From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
STAY SAFE & HAVE FUN!
Hey, at least the weather’s starting to warm up…until the polar vortex descends!
Despite strong December jobs data showing resilience in the U.S. economy, markets have started 2025 on an uncertain note. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged back above 4.8% as investors grapple with the implications of potential policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration and a less dovish Fed. As Schwab’s analysis highlights, this disconnect between economic strength and market sentiment could persist given heightened policy uncertainty. While proposed spending cuts may dominate headlines, most analysts believe meaningful deficit reduction remains unlikely given the narrow Republican majorities in Congress and competing priorities around tax reform.
The January 24th Bank of Japan meeting looms as another key risk event, with some analysts warning about potential ripple effects if the BOJ moves to hike rates. VanEck examines how the Treasury market has reacted to rising uncertainty around fiscal and monetary policy, with yields moving sharply higher despite the Fed’s recent rate cuts. The interplay between government policy and market dynamics will likely remain a key theme through early 2025.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Schwab:
VanEck:
Capital Group:
PIMCO:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The information contained herein has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or economic sector, or implement any strategy discussed. Please consult with your financial advisor, accountant, and/or attorney before acting on this information. ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc. is a DBA of OneSeven, LLC (OneSeven). OneSeven is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment Products are Not FDIC Insured, Offer No Bank Guarantee, and May Lose Value.
OneSeven does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third parties.