From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
TOSS EXPIRED CONDIMENTS AND PREPARE FOR THANKSGIVING LEFTOVERS THIS NATIONAL CLEAN YOUR REFRIGERATOR DAY!
The three major U.S. stock market indices all finished higher this week (DJIA: +2.07%, S&P 500: +2.51%, Nasdaq: +2.27%) as AI-related stocks rebounded from the prior week’s sell-off. The consumer price index (aka CPI, the most widely watched inflation measure) rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% economists had forecast. By Friday, investors were treating a December rate hike as a sure thing, and Treasury yields rose sharply, especially on shorter-term bonds. Those worries, along with AI stock swings, trimmed gains heading into the weekend. It was a wild week beyond the markets too. A Microsoft outage took down Outlook, Teams and other 365 services for much of Thursday and Friday, and on Friday the 13th, of all days, the FAA halted flights nationwide for more than four hours, something it had done only twice before. Neither event appears to have been a cyberattack. Closer to Wall Street, NVIDIA shares came under heavy pressure as reports about cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang’s personal conduct ended in his resignation.
Huang’s exit is the backdrop for Schwab’s look at what history tells investors about CEO shakeups. He left with no successor lined up, and NVIDIA’s own annual report never listed a leadership change among its risks. As Schwab sees it, unexpected transitions usually are just that. Their tour of past handoffs, from Apple and Microsoft to Hewlett-Packard, reveals a mixed record. A planned succession doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing, and a sudden exit doesn’t guarantee lasting trouble. One interesting finding is that the market’s first reaction has often been a poor guide to what comes next. For example, Apple’s stock dipped when Steve Jobs handed the reins to Tim Cook, then went on to grow many times over. Schwab also points investors to where they can look for clues about a company’s succession plans. The market judges a CEO’s exit in a day, but judging the successor usually takes years.
CEOs weren’t the only leaders changing. Now that the midterm elections are mostly behind us, Capital Group asked three of their policy specialists what the results could mean for issues markets have been watching closely.
- Their political economist on AI data centers: Local opposition may ease over the next year as the industry works out agreements with communities on water, utility bills and noise. He expects higher costs and some delays but a more workable path for the buildout.
- Their international policy advisor on trade: Other countries may push back harder in negotiations with the U.S. He doubts some trading partners will deliver the full investment amounts they pledged in earlier deals.
- Their political economist on Iran: The near-term risk of a new U.S. strike has decreased, but the standoff could last longer. The risk has shifted toward accidental clashes tied to the blockade.
The common thread across all three is that none looks likely to resolve quickly.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Schwab:
Capital Group:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Argus:
First Trust:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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