From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
“ANYONE CAN BE A FATHER, BUT IT TAKES SOMEONE SPECIAL TO BE A DAD, AND THAT’S WHY I CALL YOU DAD, BECAUSE YOU ARE SO SPECIAL TO ME. YOU TAUGHT ME THE GAME, AND YOU TAUGHT ME HOW TO PLAY IT RIGHT.” — WADE BOGGS
HAPPY FATHER’S DAY!
Markets advanced for the holiday-shortened week ending June 18th (DJIA: +1.41%, S&P 500: +1.44%, Nasdaq: +2.74%). Two major storylines drove the week: a pivotal Fed meeting and a breakthrough in the Iran war. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, as expected, in the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The central bank’s updated projections and Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference were widely interpreted as hawkish, triggering a selloff in stocks and a rise in short-term Treasury yields that afternoon. Nine of 18 officials penciled in at least one rate hike for 2026, a notable shift from March’s projections, which had pointed toward cuts. The resulting selloff proved short-lived. Sentiment turned decisively higher after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18th, extending their ceasefire and clearing a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices lower. Markets ultimately closed the week higher as the Iran news outweighed the Fed’s hawkish tone.
Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin used their latest “On Investing” podcast to unpack what may have been the most closely watched Fed meeting in years. Warsh’s approach marked a sharp departure from his predecessor. The Fed’s policy statement shrank from roughly 400 words to just 130, Warsh declined to submit his own dot plot projection, and he repeatedly steered reporters’ questions toward five newly announced task forces rather than offering the kind of forward guidance investors have grown accustomed to. Sonders and Martin found his emphasis notable in another respect. When discussing the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment, Warsh’s commentary leaned heavily toward inflation, with comparatively little said about the labor market. Both hosts also flagged that the committee itself appears evenly split between members who see further rate hikes as appropriate this year and those who favor holding steady, a divide that adds a layer of uncertainty heading into coming meetings. Sonders used the moment to reiterate a broader portfolio theme. While attention remains fixed on mega-cap technology names, market breadth has quietly improved, with 42% of S&P 500 constituents now outperforming the index over the past month, up from single digits earlier this year. Her takeaway for investors comes back to the age-old recommendation for diversification.
Argus Research’s latest commentary picked up where Schwab left off, focusing on the geopolitical breakthrough that helped lift markets late in the week. On June 18th, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding extending their ceasefire and laying out a path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping and end the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Iran’s Supreme Leader authorized the agreement, though he noted reservations about its terms even as he approved moving forward. Markets reacted favorably to the progress. The S&P 500 finished the week up more than 10% year-to-date, within one percentage point of its all-time high, buoyed by the prospect of easing oil prices and continued enthusiasm around the SpaceX IPO. Argus highlighted that SpaceX’s market capitalization climbed from $1.8 trillion immediately before its public debut to roughly $2.6 trillion just days into trading, making it the fifth-largest company in the world. With two more highly anticipated IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic, the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and November’s midterm elections on the horizon, the summer may prove unusually eventful for markets.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Schwab:
Argus:
Capital Group:
Northern Trust:
First Trust:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
Source for weekly stock market returns: Barron’s.
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