From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
HAPPY NATIONAL ONION RING DAY AND NATIONAL KISSING DAY! IF YOU PLAN TO CELEBRATE, MAYBE DON’T MIX?
The three major U.S. stock market indices extended their recent slide this week (i.e., DJIA: -1.77%, S&P 500: -1.28%, Nasdaq: -1.09%). The Federal Reserve maintained its cautious stance at its June meeting last Tuesday and Wednesday and held the federal funds target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. J.P. Morgan’s Jordan Jackson notes that while recent economic data has been encouraging, significant uncertainty remains around the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act — inflation has shown signs of moderating (e.g., May CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month), but core measures still hover above the central bank’s 2% target. Employment data presents a similar mixed picture. May payrolls slightly exceeded expectations at 139,000 new jobs; unemployment, however, held steady at 4.2%. The challenge for policymakers is parsing whether recent economic resilience reflects genuine strength or temporary factors that could reverse.
Argus Research’s economic commentary captures the prevailing mood of cautious ambiguity, describing what they call the “Yeah But” economy where every seemingly positive indicator comes with important caveats. The firm notes that consensus has become “no consensus” as businesses and investors scrutinize each data point with unusual intensity, unclear what signals truly mean for the economic outlook. While first-quarter GDP declined 0.2% because companies stockpiled imports ahead of tariff implementation, this behavior reflects business adaptation rather than fundamental weakness. Companies continue to impress and prove remarkably adept at preserving earnings targets despite policy uncertainty. This operational flexibility has historically served businesses well through various crises and suggests that the current period of uncertainty may ultimately resolve in favor of continued economic expansion.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Argus:
Janus Henderson:
Parnassus:
Northern Trust:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
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