From the desks of Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera
CHAG SAMEACH!
The three major U.S. stock market indices delivered a strong rebound this week (i.e., DJIA: +4.92%, S&P 500: +5.66%, Nasdaq: +7.29%), providing welcome relief after a difficult start to 2025. Despite this positive turn, year-to-date figures remain deeply negative across the board, with the Nasdaq particularly bruised at -13.39%. Behind these swings lies genuine economic concern, as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q1 has plummeted to -2.4%, a dramatic reversal from earlier projections. John Blank of Zacks Investment Research warns this represents “a solid proxy for the advance Q1-25 U.S. real GDP growth rate estimate” due at month’s end. Consumer sentiment has similarly collapsed, with the University of Michigan index falling precipitously to 57.0 in March, down 11.9% from February and reflecting what survey director Joanne Hsu describes as “a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations” expressing worsening expectations.
Small-cap stocks have been hit especially hard during this downturn, with the Russell 2000 falling 9.5% in the first quarter and declining a sharp 9.6% for the week ended April 4th alone. As Franklin Templeton’s research highlights, “Uncertainty over US political, trade and monetary policies—along with the fear that there could be a sizable negative impact on economic growth and the possibility of recession or stagflation—are weighing heavily on equities.” Their analysis examines historical market behavior, noting that the Russell 2000 has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with an 18.5% loss year-to-date through April 7th and a 25.5% drop from its November peak. The report also observes that periods of high market volatility have often preceded stronger market performance in subsequent years. To be determined what happens this go round.
Below are links to a number of third-party research reports that we have read and analyzed over the past week. We hope you will find the information interesting, useful, and worthwhile.
Zacks:
Franklin Templeton:
J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
BlackRock:
Amazon:
Stanley Katz & Lauren Madera, Financial Advisors
ClientFirst Financial Strategies, Inc.
937-293-5500
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